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Ballylinch Stud Irish EBF Ingabelle Stakes (Listed)

13:35 Leopardstown Sat 12 Sep 2026 0m7f0y Class 1 Good 11 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Ibelieveicanfly silks

Ibelieveicanfly

SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 28%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Ibelieveicanfly leads the field on SR at 107, a meaningful edge over Maire Rua (SR 105) and Timeless Tale (SR 105), and crucially carries the Ryan Moore booking — a jockey with a 24% career strike rate in over 1,000 rides who rarely partners non-starters for A P O'Brien (23% trainer strike rate, the strongest in the field). The form figure of 42414 shows consistent competitiveness at this level and the horse ran in a Class 1 last time, so ClassMv:= confirms no step up into the unknown. The 20% market drift is the main concern, but Moore/A P O'Brien retained for a Listed race on this profile often signals the yard's genuine number-one string — the stablemate Snowing draws a junior booking (Boudot, 66 career rides) and a DistFit:- flag, confirming Ibelieveicanfly is the yard's intended runner. The headgear addition (hood, HG:h) suggests connections are seeking improved focus, a typical A P O'Brien Listed-day sharpener. Each-way alternative: Maire Rua. Main danger: Maire Rua — Maire Rua (SR 105, 2/1 favourite, market shortened 16%) holds a Course:W1P1 course record that Ibelieveicanfly lacks, is trained by G M Lyons (16% strike rate) with Colin Keane aboard (16% career strike rate, 2,283 rides), and the form figure of 13 — a Listed placing then a win — is notably tighter and more upwardly progressive than Ibelieveicanfly's mixed 42414 sequence.

Verify· #17335

Full result

Winner: Maire Rua (GB) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Maire Rua silks Maire Rua Fox #2 G M Lyons · Colin Keane 15/8
  2. 2 Timeless Tale silks Timeless Tale Fox #3 W McCreery · W J Lee 9/4
  3. 3 Snowing silks Snowing A P O'Brien · Pierre-Charles Boudot 25/1
  4. 4 Ibelieveicanfly silks Ibelieveicanfly Fox #1 A P O'Brien · Ryan Moore 11/4
  5. 5 Bellesque silks Bellesque Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Declan McDonogh 25/1
  6. 6 Apollo's Comet silks Apollo's Comet Mrs John Harrington · Shane Foley 18/1
  7. 7 Lady Patrona silks Lady Patrona Mrs John Harrington · Keithen Kennedy 66/1
  8. 8 Maeda Matsu silks Maeda Matsu Ms Sheila Lavery · Rory Cleary 20/1
  9. 9 Blonde Over Blue silks Blonde Over Blue Joseph Patrick O'Brien · J M Sheridan 40/1
  10. 10 Miss Cashman Hooke silks Miss Cashman Hooke Miss Natalia Lupini · Ben Coen 40/1
  11. — Shi Yang silks Shi Yang Robson De Aguiar · David Egan 100/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Ibelieveicanfly silks Ibelieveicanfly 3/1 🏁 4TH
  2. 2 Maire Rua silks Maire Rua 2/1 SP 5/2 🏆 WON
  3. 3 Timeless Tale silks Timeless Tale 7/4 🥈 2ND