← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Loud Hire Supporting Bath Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Mr Fox’s call
Oviedo
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Oviedo (SR 70, 15/8) is the clear SR leader in a field where most runners sit in the 42-67 range, and a recent form line of 0-9911 shows two consecutive wins that demonstrate peak form right now. Carrying 9-7 is a manageable weight and the MarkMv:+14 — while steep — is the price of winning twice; the key is that the horse is winning at this level before the mark bites. Trainer Alexandra Dunn has a solid 11% strike rate and apprentice Millie Wonnacott's 5lb claim effectively brings the weight down to around 9-2, offsetting much of the mark rise. GoingFit:~ on good ground is a mild concern versus a proven GoingFit:+ preference, but the SR advantage of 3-5lb over the next best (Blue Hero SR 67, Footstepinthewoods SR 65, Rating SR 64) is meaningful at this class level. Each-way alternative: Footstepinthewoods. Main danger: Blue Hero — Blue Hero (SR 67, 15/2) carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 9-3, has shortened 14% in the market suggesting stable confidence, and an extraordinary Course:W11P19 record at Bath makes this a genuine course specialist who could exploit Oviedo's lack of track experience.
Full result
Winner: Footstepinthewoods (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Footstepinthewoods Fox #3 9/2
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2
Oviedo Fox #1 2/1
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3
Rating Fox #4 7/1
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4
Port Erin 12/1
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5
Red Moon 22/1
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6
Denby's Dream 20/1
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7
Blue Hero Fox #2 13/2
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8
Sant Alessio 22/1
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9
Risen Again 12/1
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10
Tonal 7/1
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Albus Anne
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Tokyo Joe
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Sagremor
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Station Bar
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Decalogue -
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Aerial Silk
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Chelio
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Danehill Star
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Dappled Light
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Eutropia
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Flag Carrier
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Dark Rosa
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Grimese's Special
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Just Jump
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Mr Tony
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Thapa VC
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Oviedo 15/8 🥈 2ND
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2
Blue Hero 15/2 7TH
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3
Footstepinthewoods 7/1 SP 5/1 🏆 WON
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4
Rating 6/1 🥉 3RD