← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Grey Tamam
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Grey Tamam (SR 155, 3/1) holds the second-highest SR in the field and is dropping three class tiers, a significant advantage in a Class 4 novice. Trainer James Tate operates at a 19% strike rate from 639 runners — a consistent, high-quality yard — and Hector Crouch at 19% is a sharp booking. The form figure '38' reads right-to-left as an 8 last, then a 3 prior, so the most recent run was modest, but the class drop from whatever higher level that was run at is the crucial mitigant here; stepping down three tiers means today's competition is markedly weaker. The 53-day break is manageable, and at 3/1 the market is pricing this horse fairly without over-shortening, leaving genuine each-way and win value. Each-way alternative: Bling. Main danger: Bling — Bling (SR 153, 10/3) has steamed in 8% in the market with Oisin Murphy — a 22% career strike rate jockey — booked, and Hugo Palmer at 13% from 1,511 runners is a capable handler of 2yo fillies; the market confidence here is real and she could outperform a single previous run of '5' if that debut run was against stronger company.
Full result
Winner: Nonrem (GB) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nonrem 50/1
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2
Grey Tamam Fox #1 10/3
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3
Blowing Up A Storm 7/1
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4
Guadalevin 3/1
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5
Pure Majesty Fox #3 6/1
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6
Lady Jemima 16/1
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7
Mistral Madness 80/1
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8
Photo Op 40/1
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Bling Fox #2 5/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3