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20:00 Kempton (AW) Mon 14 Sep 2026 1m2f219y Class 5 Good to Soft 9 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Hot Silk silks

Hot Silk

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%

7TH

Mr Fox says

Hot Silk (SR:76, 11/4) carries the joint-highest SR in the field on the lightest weight among the top-rated trio at 9-6, giving it a meaningful lbs edge over Hibernate (9-12) and Valentine Boy (9-12). The market has steamed in 15% — the strongest directional move in the race — and Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate, 2669 runners) is a significant booking for a Class 5 handicap, signalling connections expect a big run. James Fanshawe runs at 18% and the form string 444325 shows consistent competitive efforts; the recent 5th may mask improvement now handicapper has settled on a mark. The price of 11/4 implies roughly 27% market probability, yet the SR, weight, jockey, and market trajectory all point above that. Each-way alternative: Three Socks On. Main danger: Hibernate — Hibernate (SR:68, 11/2) has steamed in 9% with a proven distance record (DistFit:+) and the strongest recent form figures in the race (Form:115242), suggesting consistent competitiveness at this class level despite carrying top-weight 9-12.

Verify· #17768

Full result

Winner: Sax Avoidance (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Sax Avoidance silks Sax Avoidance Charlie Pike · Kieren Fox 11/2
  2. 2 Extraterrestrial silks Extraterrestrial Fox #4 Simon & Ed Crisford · Daniel Muscutt 9/2
  3. 3 Hibernate silks Hibernate Fox #2 Ed Dunlop · Mason Paetel(3) 7/1
  4. 4 Three Socks On silks Three Socks On Fox #3 Roger Teal · Jack Callan 10/3
  5. 5 Johnny Boom silks Johnny Boom Shaun Lycett · Myla Coppins(5) 40/1
  6. 6 Valentine Boy silks Valentine Boy Luke Dace · Jack Dace(5) 12/1
  7. 7 Hot Silk silks Hot Silk Fox #1 James Fanshawe · Oisin Murphy 9/4
  8. 8 Knight Of Storms silks Knight Of Storms David Simcock · Luke Morris 16/1
  9. 9 Letmebetheboss silks Letmebetheboss Tony Carroll · George Downing 100/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Hot Silk silks Hot Silk 11/4 7TH
  2. 2 Hibernate silks Hibernate 11/2 🥉 3RD
  3. 3 Three Socks On silks Three Socks On 4/1 🏁 4TH
  4. 4 Extraterrestrial silks Extraterrestrial 5/1 🥈 2ND