← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
MW Civils & Groundworks Handicap Steeple Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Jeteye
SPECULATIVE Advised 1/1 SP 1/1F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Jeteye (SR 96) is the clear ability leader in this field — 22 points clear of the next-best Aill Dubh (SR 81) — and at 1/1 the market is pricing in what the data supports. The 12-0 top weight is a concern in any handicap, but with a 5-runner field at Class 5 level, that burden is less punishing than it would be in a deep handicap. The form string -14312 shows a recent win (rightmost reads 2-1-3-4-1, so last two runs include a win and a second), confirming peak-season form, and Sam England's 15% stable strike rate is respectable. GoingFit:~ on good ground is a mild question, but DistFit:? simply means limited sample rather than proven failure, and the course P1 record indicates Sedgefield is no stranger. Each-way alternative: Aill Dubh. Main danger: Aill Dubh — Aill Dubh (SR 81, 10/3) carries 10-9 — a 17lb weight concession from Jeteye — on a going he handles (GoingFit:~), and at 10/3 the market rates him a genuine threat; if Jeteye's top weight tells late over 3m2f in a truly-run race, Aill Dubh is positioned to capitalise.
Full result
Winner: Jeteye (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Jeteye Fox #1 6/5
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2
Uncle Al 9/2
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3
Aill Dubh Fox #2 10/3
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4
Bahtiyar 6/1
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5
Croagh Patrick Fox #3 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3