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Taverna Nights On Saturday 26th September Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Dream Diamond
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Dream Diamond (SR:115, 9/2) is the most credible threat to the market leader. Carrying only 11-7 — the joint-lightest weight in the field — with GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ confirming suitability to today's conditions, and crucially running off a mark 7lb lower than last win (MarkMv:-7), the handicapper has handed this horse a genuine opportunity. Trainer James Owen strikes at 19% from 2,176 runners, a reliable metric, and Jonathan Burke at 15% from 716 is a competent booking. The drift to 30% out from opening is a concern and must be acknowledged, but at 9/2 with the weight and mark advantages, the market may be over-reacting to a modest recent run string that includes a fall (U) — the two subsequent runs show a 2 and a 3 at this class, keeping form live. Each-way alternative: Jet of Dreams. Main danger: Ice Jet — Despite the DistFit:- flag, Ice Jet's SR:131 is a class above the rest of this field and Dan/Harry Skelton at 22%/27% strike rates mean a horse dropping a class is always dangerous even if the distance is a question mark.
Full result
Winner: Ice Jet (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ice Jet Fox #2 8/13
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2
Bleu d'Enfer 10/1
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3
Dream Diamond Fox #1 7/2
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4
Jet of Dreams Fox #3 9/1
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5
Supreme George 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3