← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Piazza
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Piazza (SR:85, 13/8) is the clear class leader in this field by 9 points over the next best, and crucially carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders at 9-7 despite that ability advantage. The GoingFit:+ confirms proven effectiveness on today's going, the form string -57212 shows consistent recent improvement culminating in back-to-back runner-up finishes, and the market has shortened 6% since opening — quiet but meaningful support at a 13/8 price that implies ~38% market probability, broadly matching the SR edge. The step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is the one concern, and the MarkMv:+7 means connections are trying this from a 7lb higher mark than last win, but the ability advantage over rivals here is sufficient to absorb that penalty. Each-way alternative: Rogue Exile. Main danger: Rogue Exile — Rogue Exile (SR:74, 11/2) carries DistFit:+ — the only runner with a strong proven record at this trip — and trainer James Owen's 19% strike rate is the best in the field, giving this lightly-raced three-year-old with only three runs a legitimate angle at a workable price.
Full result
Winner: Justice Court (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Justice Court 10/1
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2
Piazza Fox #1 9/4
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3
Chale Chalo Fox #3 11/4
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4
Station Bar 10/1
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5
Here I Bow 12/1
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6
Siouxpersonic 9/2
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7
Rogue Exile Fox #2 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3