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Young Guns Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Emerald Bay
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Emerald Bay (SR:78, 4/1) is the joint-top SR in the field alongside Prince Kameo but carries 7lb less (9-2 vs 9-9), a meaningful weight edge in a six-runner nursery on good ground. The form string 761132 shows a clear progressive arc culminating in a win and two places from the last three runs, and dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) gives connections the confidence to add a visor for the first time — a sharpener, not a panic move. Course:W1P1 at Beverley is a decisive edge over most rivals here, and a 9% market inward move (Mkt:in9%) indicates professional money has taken notice. George Scott's 20% strike rate is the best trainer figure in the field, and PJ McDonald's booking (14%, 1,462 rides) outweighs most other jockey appointments here. Each-way alternative: Court Legend. Main danger: Prince Kameo — Prince Kameo shares the top SR (77) and has a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, with a last-time-out win from just 11 days ago indicating peak fitness — if the 5lb higher mark (MarkMv:+5) and top weight of 9-9 don't blunt that edge, he is fully capable of landing a blow.
Full result
Winner: Northern Viola (GB) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Northern Viola 18/1
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2
Prince Kameo Fox #2 7/4
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3
Court Legend Fox #3 9/2
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4
Emerald Bay Fox #1 10/3
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5
High Calibre 7/2
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Kigali 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3