← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Borders Carers Centre Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Hoe Joly Smoke
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/15 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Hoe Joly Smoke (SR 130, 8/15) is the clear selection on a convergence of signals. The Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton combination operates at 22%/27% career strike rates respectively — among the most reliable dual-purpose operations in the country — and the market has shortened a further 7% since opening, reflecting informed confidence. The recent form of 566-21 shows a clear uptick with two sharp efforts at the right end of the sequence, the horse runs off the same mark as its last win (MarkMv:=), and carrying 11-7 gives a 7lb weight advantage over Hopeless Dancer. Handmedownastar has drifted 14% out of the market and carries top-weight with a modest SR of 119 — the money is clearly against it. Each-way alternative: Hopeless Dancer. Main danger: Hopeless Dancer — Hopeless Dancer's SR of 157 is comfortably the highest in the field — 27 points clear of Hoe Joly Smoke — and if the form figures represent genuine ability at a higher level, the 7lb weight concession from rivals may not be enough to contain it on good-to-firm ground.
Full result
Winner: Handmedownastar (IRE) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Handmedownastar Fox #3 9/4
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2
Hoe Joly Smoke Fox #1 1/3
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Hopeless Dancer Fox #2 -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3