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14:00 Ayr Thu 17 Sep 2026 5f Class 5 Good to Soft 21 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Oriental Prince

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Oriental Prince (SR:74, 5/2) holds the joint-top SR in the field alongside The Caltonian (SR:75), but crucially carries 10-2 against The Caltonian's 9-9 — a 7lb weight disadvantage that partially offsets his SR edge. However, the market has decisively moved in his favour, shortening 15% from opening, and Jim Goldie (14% strike rate, 1,986 runners) is a powerful handler at this course. He drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) and runs off the same mark as his last win, both positive conditions. Paul Mulrennan (14% career SR) is a strong booking for a Goldie horse at Ayr, and at 5/2 in a 21-runner field the market is telling a clear story — this is Goldie's yard number one, not Thunderstorm Katie (drifting 15%) or Thistle Nil (drifting 39%). Each-way alternative: The Caltonian. Main danger: The Caltonian — The Caltonian (SR:75, 11/2) holds the highest SR in the field, has steamed in 49% in the market, carries 7lb less than Oriental Prince, and Clifford Lee (17% career strike rate) is a top jockey booking — the weight-plus-market combination makes him a genuine threat if his going concerns (GoingFit:-) prove less damaging than feared.

Verify· #18160

Full result

Winner: Opal Storm (GB) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.