Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap Stakes

15:40 Ayr Fri 18 Sep 2026 6f Class 2 Soft 25 runners

Mr Fox’s call

French Affair

SPECULATIVE Advised 10/1 Est. 24%

5TH

Mr Fox says

French Affair (SR:89, 10/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and carries a featherweight 9-4, giving a meaningful pounds advantage over the next-best rated runners — Woven (SR:88, 9-8) and Rousing Encore (SR:81, 9-6). The form string 246113 shows two consecutive wins heading into today, suggesting a horse in peak form and building momentum. Crucially, the market has shortened 16% since opening, and trainer Jennie Candlish hits at 17% (851 runners) while jockey Sean Bowen is among the highest-strike-rate riders in the field at 24% — a top-tier booking for a competitive Class 2 handicap. The step up two class tiers (ClassMv:↑2) and an unproven going record (GoingFit:?) are the genuine risks, but the weight allowance, SR superiority, and strong market confidence outweigh those concerns. Each-way alternative: Woven. Main danger: Woven — Woven (SR:88, 8/1) has shortened 15% in the market, holds course form (W1P3 at Ayr), and at 9-8 carries just 4lb more than French Affair despite an almost identical SR, making it the most credible threat on ratings-plus-market grounds.

Verify· #18393

Full result

Winner: Eye Of Dubai (GB) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.