← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jjx Logistics Going The Distance Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Sanditon
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Sanditon (SR:57, 7/2) is joint-top on SR alongside Tortola and Twitch but carries the most credible market case — a 14% inward move is the sharpest steam in the field and the Charlie Johnston/Jack Mitchell combination (13%/16% strike rates) is a well-oiled operation. Tortola (SR:57, 11/2) has steamed 23% but carries 9-5 versus Sanditon's 9-9, a 4lb advantage for Sanditon when SR is equal; crucially Tortola shows DistFit:- and GoingFit:- identical to Sanditon, so no edge there, and Alastair Ralph's 12% SR is slightly inferior to Johnston's yard form. Twitch (SR:57, 3/1) has drifted 11% from the joint-top of the market — the market is actively moving away from it despite a lower weight of 9-3 — which is a meaningful negative signal. Course form (W1P1) adds a further edge for Sanditon at a track where specialists recur. Each-way alternative: Tortola. Main danger: Tortola — Tortola shares the joint-top SR of 57, carries the lightest weight of the SR-elite at 9-5 (4lb below Sanditon), and has steamed 23% in the market — the strongest absolute inward move among the dangers — suggesting Rob Hornby's booking and Alastair Ralph's in-form yard (12% SR) have genuine confidence.
Full result
Winner: Twitch (NZ) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Twitch Fox #3 7/2
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2
Vitalline 8/1
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3
Elias Escape 8/1
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4
Al Suil Eile 25/1
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5
Sanditon Fox #1 4/1
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6
Enjoy The Night Fox #4 4/1
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7
Nubough 22/1
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8
Tortola Fox #2 5/1
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Mickey Mongoose 16/1
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Liberty Bird 25/1
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Gloriola 14/1
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Aplaceinthesun 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Sanditon 7/2 5TH
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2
Tortola 11/2 8TH
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3
Twitch 3/1 SP 7/2 🏆 WON
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4
Enjoy The Night 6/1 6TH