← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Pertemps Network Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Captain Parma
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Captain Parma (SR:72, 5/1) carries 10-0 but commands the strongest convergence of signals in this field: a massive 31% market move inward is the loudest money signal on the card, proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at Wolverhampton AW on good ground, Course:W0P2 showing familiarity with the track, and a ClassMv:↓1 drop in grade. The '0' last time out after 126 days off (and wearing a hood today, HG:p) suggests the layoff was deliberate and the headgear addition signals a freshened yard confidence. James Owen's 19% strike rate is the joint-best among trainers here, and Luke Morris at 12% is competent enough for this level. Powder Monkey (SR:79) is the higher-rated horse but has drifted 20% out from 5/4, carries a MarkMv:+5 penalty off its last win, and the market is clearly cooling on it — that drift is a concrete concern in a race where the money is running strongly elsewhere. Each-way alternative: Yaajooz. Main danger: Powder Monkey — Powder Monkey holds the highest SR in the field at 79 with DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed, and despite the 20% market drift it remains the form book standout if the penalty and drift prove irrelevant on the day.
Full result
Winner: Powder Monkey (IRE) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Powder Monkey Fox #2 7/4
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2
King of Ithaca 12/1
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3
Velvet Rhythm Fox #4 8/1
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4
Kit Gabriel 33/1
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5
Captain Parma Fox #1 5/1
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6
Yaajooz Fox #3 11/2
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7
Lerwick 25/1
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8
Ash Wednesday 10/1
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9
G'Emmethegreenlite 50/1
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10
North View 17/2
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11
Ziggy's Condor 14/1
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12
Havanagreattime 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4