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Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding)
Mr Fox’s call
Arapaho Gold
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/10 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Arapaho Gold (SR 122, 11/10) is the class leader in this field by a clear margin — 9 SR points clear of Jolivette and 9 clear of Nabati — and backs it up with a perfect 1-1-1-1 form line, the only unbeaten runner in the race. Course form of W1P1 at Newbury is a significant edge on a track where familiarity counts, and DistFit:+ confirms the 6f trip suits. The market has firmed 5% since opening, so money is not running away from it. The 3lb weight advantage over Nabati (9-6 vs 9-3 is a deficit, but the SR gap compensates) and the proven record at this level make it the standout selection, even if trainer Dods (12% SR) is a step up from his usual territory. Each-way alternative: Nabati. Main danger: Nabati — Nabati (SR 113, 3/1) carries the strongest connections in the race — Charlie Appleby at 33% strike rate and William Buick at 25% — has firmed 15% in the market, and a '3' last time out at Group level on just 8 days' turnaround suggests Appleby is confident in a quick return, a classic Godolphin pattern when the horse is ready to peak.
Full result
Winner: Nabati (IRE) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nabati Fox #2 3/1
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2
Jolivette Fox #3 11/4
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3
Arapaho Gold Fox #1 5/4
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4
Revels 20/1
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5
Cut A Dash 25/1
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6
Adaay of Scarlett 18/1
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7
Mr Macartney 66/1
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8
Matteo 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3