Turners Handicap Stakes

14:25 Newmarket Sat 19 Sep 2026 7f Class 4 Good 15 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Rogue Allegiance

SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%

14TH

Mr Fox says

Rogue Allegiance (SR:87, 4/1) matches Cherry Cobbler at the top of the SR rankings but carries 2lb less (10-0 vs 10-2), a meaningful weight advantage in a competitive Class 4 handicap over 7f at Newmarket. The form string 232211 — two consecutive wins to the right — is the strongest recent sequence in the field, and DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at today's trip. The market has nudged in 6% to 4/1, suggesting quiet confidence from connections, while trainer James Owen (19% strike rate, 2,203 runners) and jockey Harry Davies (13%) are a productive combination. Cherry Cobbler, the only horse matching SR:87, has drifted a dramatic 31% to 11/2 and carries MarkMv:+7 off a higher mark — the market is explicitly fading it for a reason. Each-way alternative: Hardy's Hero. Main danger: Hardy's Hero — Hardy's Hero (SR:84, 6/1, Wgt:9-11) has GoingFit:+ — the only runner with a confirmed positive record on today's good ground — trains with William Haggas (23% strike rate) and has steamed in 28% in the market, suggesting Haggas believes conditions suit perfectly despite a 7 on the recent form string.

Verify· #18600

Full result

Winner: Hungarian (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.