← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Hamilton Park Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Fantasy Force
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Fantasy Force (SR:75, 13/2) is the one runner showing genuine market confidence — a 32% move IN from its opening price is a substantial steamer in a 7-runner Class 5 nursery and demands respect. The blinkers applied first-time (HG:b) signal a specific intent from trainer Adrian Keatley (15% strike rate, the best in the field) to sharpen a horse whose form reads 3500 — that zero last time is followed by a three-class drop (ClassMv:↓3) which is a significant ease in grade. GoingFit is unknown for all runners in this field, so the soft ground is not a proven disadvantage specifically for this horse versus rivals. The 32% market steam combined with first-time headgear, a major class drop, and the yard's above-average strike rate creates a multi-signal case that overrides the modest SR and the DistFit:- flag. Each-way alternative: The Resdev Roman. Main danger: The Resdev Roman — The Resdev Roman (SR:77, 3/1) won last time out making it a 771 improver, drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), carries joint-lightest weight among the top-rated group at 9-9, and Joanna Mason's 12% career strike rate on 1,674 rides gives Easterby's yard a reliable pilot — the drift from opening is modest at 13% and may simply reflect field-wide money moving onto Fantasy Force.
Full result
Winner: Pj's Corner (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pj's Corner Fox #3 11/2
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2
Aura of Melania 15/2
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3
Prosperity Angel 9/2
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4
Concert Pitch 15/2
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5
Space Dreamer 7/2
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6
The Resdev Roman Fox #2 11/4
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7
Fantasy Force Fox #1 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3