← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Aggagio
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Aggagio (SR:85, 7/2) shares the field's joint-highest SR but carries 12-0 — a significant weight burden offset by the fact that Farhh Echo (SR:85, 12-3) is 3lb heavier and has drifted a massive 29% in the market, a glaring red flag against a horse that ran just 2 days ago and has a tongue-tie applied. Aggagio's market has shortened 7% to 7/2, suggesting money is coming for it despite the MarkMv:+16 concern. While DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are genuine negatives, those same flags apply to most of this field, so they don't differentiate strongly — and the Moore yard at 11% strike rate with a competent 16%-strike jockey in Quinn gives this runner professional backing. The form string 2773-4 shows consistency without a recent win, but in a race where the market drifter (Farhh Echo) looks vulnerable and the rest of the field is well below SR:85, Aggagio is the most credible winner on combined SR, market move, and connections. Each-way alternative: A Tickatickatiming. Main danger: Anxious Moments — Anxious Moments (SR:78, 11/2) has shortened 11% in the market, is dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1), and is ridden by Harry Cobden (22% career strike rate, 856 runners) for Charlie Longsdon (16%, 716 runners) — elite connections for this level who rarely run a horse after 127 days off without expectation, and the class drop is a meaningful edge.
Full result
Winner: Khalk'eau Spigao (FR) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Khalk'eau Spigao 9/2
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2
Farhh Echo Fox #4 13/8
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3
Captain Connor 25/1
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4
Bread And Butter 50/1
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5
Porridge 66/1
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6
Anxious Moments Fox #3 7/1
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Aggagio Fox #1 7/2
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A Tickatickatiming Fox #2 6/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Aggagio 7/2
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2
A Tickatickatiming 7/1
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3
Anxious Moments 11/2 6TH
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4
Farhh Echo 7/4 🥈 2ND