← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Act of Violence
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Act of Violence (SR:76, 9/4) is the clear SR leader in this field by 7 points over the next best, and at 9-5 carries a favourable weight despite stepping up a class (ClassMv:↑1). The form string -84132 shows a sharp upward trajectory with back-to-back placed/winning efforts, and De Sousa's booking (14% career strike rate, 1581 runners) is the most meaningful jockey appointment in the field — Tony Carroll's clear #1 runner from his three declarations, confirmed by the top jockey, best SR, and tightest market position. The MarkMv:+9 is a concern worth flagging, but at this class level (Class 5, £3,664) the SR dominance overrides the mark rise. GoingFit:~ on good-to-firm is not ideal but does not disqualify, and the class-rise risk is partially offset by the weight advantage at 9-5 versus rivals carrying 9-7 to 9-10 with inferior ability ratings. Each-way alternative: Magic Music. Main danger: Magic Music — Magic Music (SR:68, 6/1) has steamed in 24% in the market — the most significant move in the field — carries GoingFit:+ on today's good-to-firm ground, and P.J. McDonald's booking adds confidence, making it the most likely horse to exploit Act of Violence's step up in class and MarkMv:+9 burden.
Full result
Winner: Mumayaz (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mumayaz Fox #4 5/1
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2
Magic Music Fox #3 5/1
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3
Diamondinthedark 10/1
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4
Act of Violence Fox #1 9/4
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5
Neptune Legend 22/1
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6
The Bitter Moose 12/1
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7
Alkuwarrior 12/1
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8
The Flying Seagull 15/2
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9
Bleep Test 50/1
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10
Travel Agent 14/1
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11
Ezra Cee 40/1
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12
Maid In Devon Fox #2 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Act of Violence 9/4 🏁 4TH
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2
Maid In Devon 8/1 12TH
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3
Magic Music 6/1 🥈 2ND
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4
Mumayaz 5/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON