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Mr Fox’s call
Ridger
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Ridger (SR:60, 10/3) carries the lightest weight in the field at 8-9, a meaningful advantage in a 15-runner Class 6 handicap on good-to-firm, and has steamed in 42% from opening price — the strongest market move in the race by a distance. That Mkt:in42% signal on a 3-year-old with a trainer (Ollie Sangster, 14%) and jockey (Harry Vigors, 13%) both running above-average strike rates demands respect. The recent form figure of 2 last time out shows a horse in form and improving, and at 8-9 he has a genuine weight-to-ability edge over Violet Goldsmith (SR:68, 9-9) — the SR gap does not offset a 10lb weight disadvantage in this company. The tongue-tie first application is a minor unknown but the money clearly isn't troubled by it. Each-way alternative: Violet Goldsmith. Main danger: Violet Goldsmith — Violet Goldsmith holds the field's highest SR at 68 and shows a progressive form line of -02122 including back-to-back runner-up finishes, and while she has drifted 25% in the market and carries 9-9 compared to Ridger's 8-9, her raw ability advantage could overcome the weight concession if the apprentice rider (Oliver Carmichael, 7%) navigates cleanly from the front.
Full result
Winner: Shark Two One (GB) at SP 11/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Shark Two One 16/1
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2
Sir David 12/1
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3
Ridger Fox #1 5/2
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4
Albeyours 9/1
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5
Midnight's Dream Fox #3 7/2
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6
Violet Goldsmith Fox #2 5/1
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7
Aim For The Bull 28/1
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8
Diane Chasseresse 28/1
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9
Captain Corelli 28/1
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10
Clasina 33/1
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11
Credit Forgedd It Fox #4 9/1
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12
Heer's Sadie 28/1
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13
Too Much Trevor 12/1
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14
Cuban Girl 20/1
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—
Amathus 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ridger 10/3 🥉 3RD
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2
Violet Goldsmith 4/1 6TH
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3
Midnight's Dream 9/2 5TH
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4
Credit Forgedd It 8/1 11TH