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Mr Fox’s call
The Hare Rail
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 100/30 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
The Hare Rail (SR:72, 9/2) is the joint-highest rated runner in the field alongside Espanita, but crucially carries 9-10 versus Espanita's bigger market negative — a massive 59% drift that cannot be ignored. The 20% market support for The Hare Rail is the strongest inbound move in the race and signals informed money despite 76 days off; the hood (HG:h) is a first-time application signal that connections are targeting this. Course form (W0P2 at Wolverhampton) on a track that rewards familiarity, combined with a same-class run and a competitive SR at this level, builds a coherent case. The distance flag (DistFit:-) is a concern, but the market's conviction in shortening 20% on a horse returning from break with new headgear suggests connections believe the trip is manageable here. Each-way alternative: American State. Main danger: Espanita — Despite the alarming 59% drift, Espanita holds the joint-highest SR (73), is a proven course winner (W2P2 at Wolverhampton), has confirmed GoingFit:+ for today's conditions, and has finished 1 on her most recent start — if the drift reflects a minor management concern rather than a fitness issue, her underlying ability makes her the most dangerous horse in the race.
Full result
Winner: The Hare Rail (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
The Hare Rail Fox #1 7/2
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2
Espanita Fox #4 6/1
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3
Rua Mor 14/1
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4
American State Fox #2 4/1
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5
Highland Olly Fox #3 13/2
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6
Meritocratic 25/1
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7
Drumstick 10/1
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8
Moon Beginnings 5/1
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9
Lili Marleen 66/1
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10
Three No Trumps 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4