← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
La Bucca Restaurant Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Naoi
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 SP 4/1J Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Naoi (SR:71, 11/2) is the highest-rated horse in this competitive 21-runner handicap and carries the strongest distance and going credentials in the field — DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ on today's Good ground at 7f confirm this trip and surface suit perfectly. W.J. Lee (15% career strike rate, 1847 runners) is a high-quality booking and is the clear #1 jockey in the McCreery yard over stablemate Phoenix Pairc. Running off a mark just 2lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+2) is a modest enough penalty, and at 11/2 the market has not materially drifted, suggesting connections are not alarmed. The form string 338-19 shows a recent 9th (likely a step up/down in trip or going mismatch) but a career line of placing consistently at this level makes Naoi the most credible winning formula. Each-way alternative: Mr Perth. Main danger: Mr Perth — Mr Perth (SR:62, 13/2) is the only horse in the field showing a meaningful market move inward (Mkt:in12%) — money has come for this Grassick runner ridden by W.M. Lordan (16% career strike rate) and at a low weight of 9-5 there is every reason to take the market signal seriously despite moderate recent form figures.
Full result
Winner: Naoi (IRE) at SP 4/1J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Naoi Fox #1 5/1
-
2
Moyassr 7/1
-
3
La La Lucrative Fox #2 9/1
-
4
Rappell 8/1
-
5
Givehertilxmas 5/1
-
6
Phoenix Pairc 10/1
-
7
Blues Emperor Fox #4 17/2
-
8
Comfort Line 16/1
-
9
Mr Perth Fox #3 15/2
-
10
Thru And Thru 16/1
-
11
Dervo Annie 18/1
-
12
Loingseoir 18/1
-
13
Elly Bay 16/1
-
14
Covert Legend 18/1
-
15
Banshof 66/1
-
16
Orphanina 50/1
-
17
Prince Andorra 66/1
-
18
Treasured Royal 33/1
-
—
Dandymaria 16/1
-
—
Venetian Star -
-
—
Simmering Seas 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Naoi 11/2 SP 4/1J 🏆 WON
-
2
La La Lucrative 8/1 🥉 3RD
-
3
Mr Perth 13/2 9TH
-
4
Blues Emperor 15/2 7TH