← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jet, Peggy & Eamonn O'Carroll Memorial Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Bay of Stars
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Bay of Stars (SR:94, 4/1) is the class leader in this field by a clear margin — 9 SR points ahead of the next-best Lord Aus — and carries a manageable 9-12. The decisive signal is the Mkt:in27% move, the sharpest sustained market support in the field, suggesting informed confidence from the Weld/Keane combination (Keane strikes at 16% from 2321 career rides). GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's Good ground, and a form line showing a recent win (the '1' in 6-1230, read right-to-left meaning last run was 0, but the win is present in the sequence) gives a recent class reference. Colin Keane's booking for a Weld 3-year-old in a €12,000 handicap at Listowel with this level of market support is a strong convergence of signals. Each-way alternative: Lord Aus. Main danger: Lord Aus — Lord Aus (SR:85, 11/2) has steamed in 23% in the market with Ben Coen booked, carries the lightest weight in the field at 9-0, and a MarkMv:+10 is offset by the significant weight advantage over Bay of Stars.
Full result
Winner: Count Bezukhov (IRE) at SP 15/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Count Bezukhov Fox #3 11/4
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2
Lord Aus Fox #2 11/2
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3
Bay of Stars Fox #1 4/1
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4
Huff'n'puff 7/1
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5
Possum 16/1
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6
Mergus Serrator 9/1
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7
Sunrush Fox #4 11/2
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8
Vantage Code 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Bay of Stars 4/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Lord Aus 11/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Count Bezukhov 3/1 SP 15/8F 🏆 WON
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4
Sunrush 11/2 7TH