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19:30 Kempton (AW) Wed 23 Sep 2026 7f Class 4 Good to Soft 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Chalk Mountain

SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Chalk Mountain (SR:91, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a manageable 9-8, giving it a real lbs edge over most rivals. The standout signal is the market: a 56% inward move from opening price is the most aggressive market support in the race, and the yard has booked Marco Ghiani (16% career strike rate, 1658 runners — the strongest jockey record here). Three wins and eight places at Kempton is elite course form that translates directly today; the tongue-tie is a known positive for this horse. The GoingFit:- flag is the only genuine concern — if the ground rides softer than expected, Chalk Mountain's record suffers — but on an AW surface 'Good to Soft' is a softer going descriptor rather than the deep turf that truly stops this type, and the money is clearly ignoring it. Each-way alternative: Physique. Main danger: Crossbar — Crossbar (SR:89, 4/1) is the Clive Cox yard's #1 — David Egan booking over Joe Leavy, plus a course win and place from two visits — and a form line of 13 suggests a progressive three-year-old that has yet to meet a field this deep, making it dangerous despite 100 days off and limited distance data.

Verify· #19403

Full result

Winner: Luansobe (GB) at SP 4/1J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.