← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
La Note Verte
MEDIUM Advised 8/11 SP 1/1F Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
La Note Verte (SR 136, 8/11) is the clear selection. The Mullins/Townend combination — strike rates of 26% and 38% respectively across large sample sizes — is the most powerful pairing in Irish jump racing, and the market has backed this horse in aggressively by 21% from an already short opening price. Course form of W2P2 at Listowel is a concrete specialist edge, and a GoingFit:+ confirms good ground suits. The most recent form figure is a '1' (last time out winner), and while DistFit:? reflects limited evidence at 2m3f, Mullins would not pitch this horse into a novice chase at this trip if connections had doubts about the distance. Miss Doyenne carries a higher SR of 159 but has drifted 31% in the market and carries a GoingFit:? — the market is clearly uncomfortable, and her 137-day absence adds further risk. Each-way alternative: Miss Doyenne. Main danger: Miss Doyenne — Miss Doyenne's SR of 159 is the highest in the field by a significant margin and her recent form of /331-1 shows she can win at this level — if the 137-day layoff has left her fit and the going suits despite the GoingFit:? query, she is absolutely capable of reversing market fortunes.
Full result
Winner: La Note Verte (GB) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
La Note Verte Fox #1 5/6
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2
Lady Bluebird Fox #3 7/1
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3
Walks The Talk 14/1
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4
Miss Doyenne Fox #2 3/1
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5
Emily Love 9/1
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6
Missus Beeton 25/1
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—
Kelya 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3