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Saltire Hospitality EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (EBF Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Poetic Twist
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Poetic Twist (SR:127, 11/8) is the clear pick on a convergence of signals. The 18% market steam — the strongest directional move in this five-runner field — reflects informed confidence, and Gordon Elliott's 18% yard strike rate with Sean Bowen (24%, 2353 career rides) is a formidable combination at any track. The SR:127 comfortably clears Datstheholyallofit (111) and Biglesisback (106), and while Kingside Lady holds an SR edge at 155, she arrives on a fresher hurdles profile (form 101) with a drifting market (-10%) and a low-strike-rate jockey booking (Alex Harvey 10%), undermining confidence that her flat rating fully translates here. Poetic Twist's recent form 2-2126 shows consistent placing, the equal weight (11-7) removes any lbs disadvantage, and Elliott running a 5yo mare with Bowen at this level almost always signals intent. Each-way alternative: Kingside Lady. Main danger: Kingside Lady — Kingside Lady's SR:155 is by far the highest in the field and her flat form 101 shows recent winning ability, meaning if the class and ability fully translates over hurdles she is capable of taking this race despite the drifting market and weak jockey booking.
Full result
Winner: Datstheholyallofit (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Datstheholyallofit Fox #3 4/1
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2
Biglesisback 4/1
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3
Poetic Twist Fox #1 evn
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4
Kingside Lady Fox #2 5/1
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5
Sky Blue Ribbon 28/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3