← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Fire Thunder
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Fire Thunder (SR 90, 4/1, 8-8) is the top-rated horse in the field and carries the lightest weight among the leading contenders — a significant lbs edge over Sierra Belle (9-5), Al Samsama (9-9) and Polyxena (9-6). The double going and distance confirmation (GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+) is the only such combination in the field, and the market has shortened 42% since opening — the strongest steaming signal alongside Marsala. The form string '222152' shows consistent competitiveness at a high level with a recent win (the '1' two runs ago) and only a 1lb rise in the mark. Marco Botti's yard identifies Fire Thunder as its #1 runner given the superior SR over stablemate Zephyra (SR 84), and Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride over the less proven booking on Zephyra. Each-way alternative: Zephyra. Main danger: Zephyra — Zephyra (SR 84, 17/2) has steamed 31% in the market, carries 9-1 — a comfortable weight — and Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate, the highest jockey strike rate in the field) takes the ride, which in a Botti two-runner situation is a significant booking signal that Murphy has chosen this one.
Full result
Winner: Al Samsama (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Al Samsama Fox #4 11/2
-
2
Polyxena 11/2
-
3
Marsala 11/2
-
4
Next of Kin 15/2
-
5
Fire Thunder Fox #1 7/2
-
6
Tansy Lane 12/1
-
7
Bymiddaytomorrow 17/2
-
8
Zephyra Fox #2 9/1
-
9
Tie A Navyribbon 28/1
-
10
Kiah 12/1
-
—
Sierra Belle Fox #3 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Fire Thunder 4/1 5TH
-
2
Zephyra 17/2 8TH
-
3
Sierra Belle 7/2
-
4
Al Samsama 11/2 SP 9/2 🏆 WON