← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Michael Raby Memorial Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Mr Fox’s call
Sole Spirit
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/1 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Sole Spirit (SR 63, 9/1) tops the SR rankings in this Class 6 sprint and drops in class (↓1) off a mark only 1lb higher than last win — the most favourable MarkMv combination in the field. Carrying 10-0 is a concern but the weight disadvantage is offset by a clear SR edge over rivals, proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), and Bryan Smart/Paul Mulrennan is a competent partnership with consistent strike rates. The 7 in the form string last time is noted, but the longer sequence shows a winner at Class 6 level not long ago (form 1161) and the class drop should bring out improvement. Good Karma at 7/2 is the clear market leader but carries GoingFit:- and DistFit:- at today's conditions — two meaningful negatives the market appears to be discounting. Each-way alternative: Jet Warrior. Main danger: Good Karma — Good Karma (SR 67, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries market support (Mkt:in11%) on the lowest competitive weight at 9-10, meaning if the GoingFit:- and DistFit:- negatives prove less decisive than the data suggests, it has the raw ability to dominate.
Full result
Winner: Showtime Mahomes (GB) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Showtime Mahomes 11/2
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2
Run This Way 8/1
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3
Eldeyaar 8/1
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4
Big Apple Jack Fox #3 15/2
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5
Oh So Perfect 9/1
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6
Good Karma Fox #2 7/2
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7
Sole Spirit Fox #1 8/1
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8
Triple P 20/1
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9
Golden Mabel 18/1
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10
Jet Warrior Fox #4 6/1
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11
King's Road Dandy 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4