← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jozef White Last Day Of Freedom Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Walking On Stars
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 2/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Walking On Stars (SR:91, 11/4) is shortlisted ahead of Koala Rose on the basis of superior connections and market trajectory. Sir Mark Prescott operates at 19% career strike rate — identical to Beckett — but the 11% market steam on Walking On Stars (vs Koala Rose's 20% in) suggests the market is split between the two, and Prescott's record of placing horses precisely in novice/maiden company at this trip is a strong contextual signal. The form line 5422 shows consistent improvement and a tightening sequence, and GoingFit:~ is acceptable on good ground at this stage of development. Critically, at 11/4 versus 6/4, Walking On Stars offers meaningful each-way value over a favourite whose SR:92 is only marginally superior and who has not raced in 51 days. Wadacre Icon (SR:150, 10/3) is the class standout on paper but has drifted 28% from opening and has only one run — a second — with no demonstrated stamina for 1m4f; the market cooling on it is a significant red flag. Each-way alternative: Wadacre Icon. Main danger: Koala Rose — Koala Rose (SR:92, 6/4) has the strongest market support with a 20% steam, GoingFit:+, a consistent 3-3223 form line, and Ralph Beckett (19% strike rate) who is fully capable of placing a lightly-raced filly at a class rise — the 51-day break is the only material concern.
Full result
Winner: Walking On Stars (IRE) at SP 2/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Walking On Stars Fox #1 2/1
-
2
Koala Rose Fox #2 7/4
-
3
Neswick 12/1
-
4
Wadacre Icon Fox #3 7/2
-
5
Emtinan 16/1
-
6
Who's The Goat 16/1
-
7
Chico Dorado 33/1
-
8
Medran 80/1
-
9
Going To Graceland 50/1
-
—
Brittunculi 300/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Walking On Stars 11/4 SP 2/1 🏆 WON
-
2
Koala Rose 6/4 🥈 2ND
-
3
Wadacre Icon 10/3 🏁 4TH