← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Canon's House
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Canon's House (SR 90, 9/2) is the standout value pick on market signals alone — a 37% market move inward is the most dramatic market confidence indicator in this field, dwarfing every other runner's movement. Dropping one class with a 6lb mark reduction since last win gives connections a genuine handicap edge, and a Course:W1P3 record at Southwell confirms specialist track form on an AW circuit where course familiarity matters. At 9/2 with blinkers applied for focus, the combination of market steam, class drop, mark drop, and course record is the strongest multi-signal case in the race. Hypnotised (SR 94, 9/4) is the only horse with a higher SR but carries this class drop without the course specialisation or market confidence, and the 9/4 price compresses value significantly. Each-way alternative: Hypnotised. Main danger: Hypnotised — Hypnotised holds the highest SR in the field at 94, drops one class, and carries the lightest weight among the serious contenders at 9-9, giving it a genuine ability-to-weight advantage that could override Canon's House's market edge.
Full result
Winner: Moulin Booj (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Moulin Booj 10/1
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2
Michaela's Boy 18/1
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3
Canon's House Fox #1 9/2
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4
Paradise Walk 25/1
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5
Kylian Fox #4 9/2
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6
Hypnotised Fox #2 6/4
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7
Fidelius 14/1
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8
True Promise 28/1
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—
Right And Exact Fox #3 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Canon's House 9/2 🥉 3RD
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2
Hypnotised 9/4 6TH
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3
Right And Exact 15/2
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4
Kylian 9/2 5TH