← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jodie Standing's Point-to-point Recruits Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Matiwo
SPECULATIVE Advised 1/3 Est. 45%
Mr Fox says
Matiwo (SR:124, 1/3) has steamed in 31% from its opening price, the single strongest market move in the field, and carries a favourable 10-12 vs the 11-0 top-weights. At age 4 in a novice hurdle, the form string '3F148-' shows rawness but the market is telling a clear story of well-fancied ability heading into this Class 4 contest. Scott's Legacy (SR:155, 3/1) is the obvious rating leader but Matiwo's connections have clearly backed their judgment hard — a 31% shortening to odds-on in a 7-runner novice is significant stable confidence. The 15% market move on Scott's Legacy is solid but cannot match the volume of money behind Matiwo, and the SR gap is partly explained by Scott's Legacy's '51-' form showing a break and uncertainty. Each-way alternative: Scott's Legacy. Main danger: Scott's Legacy — Scott's Legacy carries the field's highest SR at 155 — a full 31 points clear of Matiwo — and has shortened 15% in the market with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle (17% career strike rate, 996 runners), meaning ability and connections both point to a genuine winning chance if Matiwo's market confidence is overstated.
Full result
Winner: Scott's Legacy (IRE) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Scott's Legacy Fox #2 2/1
-
2
Matiwo Fox #1 1/3
-
3
Happy Chandler 50/1
-
4
Savanna Storm 50/1
-
5
Silver Whisper Fox #3 50/1
-
6
Pappano 66/1
-
—
Ride Like A Girl -
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3