← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Pravha Handicap (Div I)
Mr Fox’s call
Chapel Island
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Chapel Island (SR:63, 5/1) is the highest-rated runner in the field by a clear margin, which matters even in a competitive lower-grade handicap. The decisive signal is the 29% market shortening — the sharpest move in the entire field — suggesting stable confidence ahead of a run just 3 days ago, implying this is a planned quick turnaround with the horse in form. As A Oliver's yard #1 (Wesley Joyce booking versus the more senior W.J. Lee on No More Hiding is notable — Joyce is the lighter-weighted, cheaper booking, but the market has answered that question emphatically). The weight of 9-5 is reasonable given the SR advantage, and while DistFit and GoingFit both show '-', those negatives are shared across most of this field on a track where going conditions are universal on the day. Each-way alternative: Chloe's Boy. Main danger: Chloe's Boy — Chloe's Boy (SR:60, 4/1) posted a '1' last time out, carries a manageable 9-4, has a GoingFit:~ advantage over most rivals on good ground, and is second-favourite — the form figure is the strongest recent evidence in the race.
Full result
Winner: No More Hiding (GB) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
No More Hiding Fox #3 3/1
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2
Aiteall 10/1
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3
Autocrat 12/1
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4
Tassarolo 5/1
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5
Pettus Bridge 12/1
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6
All Is Bright 33/1
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7
Limestone Red Fox #4 6/1
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8
Chloe's Boy Fox #2 9/2
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9
Ellens Bay 40/1
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10
Idomything 25/1
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11
Chapel Island Fox #1 6/1
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12
The Monday Club 14/1
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13
Jazz Dreamers 40/1
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14
Annacroft 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Chapel Island 5/1 11TH
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2
Chloe's Boy 4/1 8TH
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3
No More Hiding 7/2 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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4
Limestone Red 7/1 7TH