← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Watching The Clock
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Watching The Clock (SR 100, 4/1) is the top-rated horse in the field and carries the most favourable weight-to-SR ratio at 11-0 — a clear edge over Thornleigh Frank (SR 96, 11-12) and Charlie Luciano (SR 97, 11-7) who lug significantly more. The 4455-2 form string shows consistent improvement to a placed effort last time out, and at age 5 this is the youngest, most likely progressive runner in a field of older horses. Trainer Padraig Roche's 10% strike rate is respectable and this is a well-priced market leader for a Class structure at this level. The main caveat is DistFit:? and GoingFit:? — insufficient samples at 3m and on good ground — but at 5 years old with a rising form line, those unknowns are acceptable risks against proven but limited rivals. Each-way alternative: Roc My Haarth. Main danger: Roc My Haarth — Roc My Haarth (SR 97, 6/1) carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders at 10-2, posts a form figure of U261-6 showing a recent win, runs for a 9% trainer strike rate operation, and holds a MarkMv:= meaning no penalty since the last win — the light weight in this staying handicap is a genuine asset.
Full result
Winner: Smallcraftwarning (IRE) at SP 7/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Smallcraftwarning Fox #3 9/2
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2
Milan Forth 17/2
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3
Ilbdare 7/1
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4
Thornleigh Frank 8/1
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5
Adaliz Fox #4 9/2
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6
Roc My Haarth Fox #2 6/1
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7
Watching The Clock Fox #1 9/2
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8
West Is Awake 16/1
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9
Charlie Luciano 12/1
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10
Starzov 22/1
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11
Free Flowing 40/1
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—
Positive Thinker 16/1
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—
Paradise Lost 11/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Watching The Clock 4/1 7TH
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2
Roc My Haarth 6/1 6TH
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3
Smallcraftwarning 7/1 SP 7/2F 🏆 WON
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4
Adaliz 11/2 5TH