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Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Tipsy Tiger
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Tipsy Tiger (SR:83, 9/2) is the standout selection on today's heavy going at Ayr. Critically, it is the ONLY horse in the field with a confirmed GoingFit:+ for heavy ground — a decisive edge when the going is this testing at 1m2f. Running off a mark 1lb below its last win (MarkMv:-1), it carries a favourable 9-7 compared to joint-topweights Star Cast and Mehmas Champion on 9-13, a 6lb advantage that is amplified significantly on heavy ground. The market has shortened 8% (Mkt:in8%) confirming money is coming for it, and the trainer William Stone (13% SR) and jockey Shane Gray (14% SR) both carry respectable statistics. The form line 234-64 shows consistency in similar competitive handicaps and the cheekpieces (HG:p) have been retained from last time. Each-way alternative: Star Cast. Main danger: Star Cast — Star Cast (SR:88, 3/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by some margin, carries proven course form (W1P3 at Ayr), has been steaming in the market (Mkt:in16%), drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), and handles 1m2f well (DistFit:+) — the main concern is the unproven heavy-going profile (GoingFit:?) and the 9-13 top-weight burden, but if it handles the ground its class is the most dangerous factor in the race.
Full result
Winner: Tipsy Tiger (GB) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tipsy Tiger Fox #1 4/1
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2
Keep An Eye On It Fox #3 4/1
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3
Kokanee 10/1
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4
Star Cast Fox #2 3/1
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5
Mehmas Champion 6/1
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6
Yermanthere 25/1
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7
Krissy Fox #4 10/1
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8
Zowal 12/1
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9
Mano Chicago 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4