← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Kelpie Grey
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Kelpie Grey (SR:58, 9/2) is Jim Goldie's nominated #1 in this yard double-entry, ridden by the more experienced Paul Mulrennan (14% SR, 2418 runners) over stablemate Tap Dancer's apprentice Lauren Young. The MarkMv:-24 is the most dramatic handicap drop in the field, indicating the horse is now running off a mark significantly below its last winning mark — a potent advantage in a Class 6 heavy-ground handicap. Critically, GoingFit:+ is the only confirmed positive going record in the field, meaning Kelpie Grey has demonstrably handled heavy ground before, a decisive edge on a testing Ayr surface. Course:W2P9 confirms this horse goes well at Ayr specifically, and the ClassMv:↓1 drop adds further ease in class. Each-way alternative: Milford Grange. Main danger: Milford Grange — Milford Grange (SR:60, 11/2, Mkt:in7%) is the joint-highest SR in the field, has shortened in the market, carries only 9-11 with a ClassMv:↓1 advantage, and blinkers (HG:b) are applied for the first time — a classic headgear-plus-class-drop combination that wins Class 6 handicaps regularly.
Full result
Winner: Highfield Viking (GB) at SP 100/30F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Highfield Viking 9/2
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2
Kelpie Grey Fox #1 4/1
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3
Wise Crack Fox #3 6/1
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4
Showtown 16/1
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5
Tap Dancer 15/2
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6
Novak Fox #4 15/2
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7
Sailor Batt 12/1
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8
Toy Soldier 16/1
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9
Milford Grange Fox #2 5/1
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10
Lope Y Linda 10/1
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11
Runninman 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Kelpie Grey 9/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Milford Grange 11/2 9TH
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3
Wise Crack 13/2 🥉 3RD
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4
Novak 8/1 6TH