← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racingtv.com Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Cape Sovereign
SPECULATIVE Advised 12/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Cape Sovereign (SR:51, 12/1) has steamed 26% in the market — the strongest inward move in this field — which is a meaningful signal in a Class 6 sprint where the market is rarely wrong about live runners. The tongue-tie plus cheekpieces combination (HG:tp) suggests connections are trying something new to unlock ability, and at 9-9 the weight is manageable. The form string 7900-0 is poor on face value, but the market move at this class level argues an intended run, and Rebecca Menzies (11% SR) booking Rowan Scott (11%) is a competent combination at this northern track. The GoingFit:~ is a modest positive — the horse has handled similar conditions before — and in a field where the SR leader (Mister Sky Blue, SR:61) carries a 12lb mark drop but is ridden by a 7% strike-rate apprentice on a going/distance profile (GoingFit:-) that does not flatter. Each-way alternative: Indy's Angel. Main danger: Mister Sky Blue — Mister Sky Blue (SR:61, 10/3) is the highest-rated runner in the field and has shortened 19% in the market with a MarkMv:-12 advantage, meaning connections expect the drop in mark to unlock a win even if the going and distance profile are both negatives.
Full result
Winner: Wait For It (IRE) at SP 6/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Wait For It Fox #4 6/1
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2
Indy's Angel Fox #3 17/2
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3
Golden Prosperity 5/1
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4
Mister Sky Blue Fox #2 3/1
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5
Without Delay 9/2
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6
Dabbling 11/1
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7
Miss Willows 20/1
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8
Cape Sovereign Fox #1 14/1
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9
Profiteer 16/1
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10
Society Charm 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Cape Sovereign 12/1 8TH
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2
Mister Sky Blue 10/3 🏁 4TH
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3
Indy's Angel 8/1 🥈 2ND
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4
Wait For It 15/2 SP 6/1 🏆 WON