← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Mic Drop
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Mic Drop (SR:108, 11/2) brings the strongest recent form in the race — a 1-1-3 sequence culminating in back-to-back wins, and crucially a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, which is the clearest going advantage in the field. Carrying 11-4 is manageable relative to top-weight Soldante on 11-12, giving Mic Drop an 8lb pull on the most-exposed horse in the race. Trainer David O'Brien's 6% strike rate is modest but Sean Flanagan at 10% is a competent booking. The MarkMv:+9 is the main concern, but the horse is genuinely in form (back-to-back wins) and the going confirmation at this grade is the decisive edge. The market drift of 8% is notable but the form and going data make a stronger case than the bookmakers are currently crediting. Each-way alternative: Miners Bridge. Main danger: Miners Bridge — Miners Bridge (SR:108, 9/4) shares the joint-best SR, carries a more manageable 11-0, has a confirmed GoingFit:+ and is the market favourite — the 11% drift is a concern but the underlying form of /72-41 shows a recent win and S Curling's 10% stable strike rate gives it genuine winning claims at this price.
Full result
Winner: Miners Bridge (IRE) at SP 7/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Miners Bridge Fox #2 7/4
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2
Mic Drop Fox #1 11/2
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3
Phoenix Arizona Fox #4 3/1
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4
Jumble Light 14/1
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5
Zolpharine 25/1
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6
Stuntman Steve 15/2
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7
Midnight Eagle 5/1
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—
Soldante Fox #3 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Mic Drop 11/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Miners Bridge 9/4 SP 7/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Soldante 4/1
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4
Phoenix Arizona 4/1 🥉 3RD