← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Cranachan
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/10 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Cranachan (SR 99, 11/10) is the clear class standout in this field — a full 13 points above the next-best runner (Vaguely Royal, SR 86) and 21 points clear of the field average. Despite stepping up one class and running off a mark 9lb higher than last win, the form string -21421 shows consistent competitiveness at a higher level than anything else in this field, and the 6% market shortening confirms stable confidence. Ralph Beckett (19% strike rate, 1697 runners) paired with Rossa Ryan (18% strike rate, 2913 runners) is a powerful booking — Beckett does not run horses in Class 3 handicaps for fun. The weight of 9-6 is very workable, sitting 12lb below top-weight Hot Fuss, giving a meaningful lbs edge to the classiest horse in the field. Each-way alternative: Vaguely Royal. Main danger: Hot Fuss — Hot Fuss (SR 89, 7/2) has steamed in 18% in the market, drops two classes, and arrives off a mark fully 33lb lower than last win — that combination of market support and massive mark reduction is precisely the setup trainers target for a handicap success, and despite poor going form the visor application and Dascombe's intent signal cannot be ignored.
Full result
Winner: Hot Fuss (IRE) at SP 7/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Hot Fuss Fox #3 9/2
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2
Shipshape 9/1
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3
Just An Hour 8/1
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4
Must Believe 14/1
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5
Vaguely Royal Fox #2 6/1
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Cranachan Fox #1 10/11
Top 4 — how each finished
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3