Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap Stakes

19:15 Newcastle (AW) Fri 02 Oct 2026 7f14y Class 6 Good 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Lanarra

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Lanarra (SR:63, 5/1, Wgt:9-6) is the highest-rated horse in the field and the only one with a confirmed win at Newcastle (Course:W1P1), giving her a meaningful course advantage on a track where familiarity matters. Her recent form string 343513 shows consistent competitiveness — a win three runs back and a third last time out — and her DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ on good AW are both acceptable rather than red flags. At 9-6 she carries 7lb less than top-weight Soul Warrior (SR:60) despite holding a 3-point SR edge, which is a tangible weight advantage. The MarkMv:+3 is a mild negative but Class 6 at this trip is exactly where she has shown her best form and no other runner combines SR leadership, course form, and workable weight. Each-way alternative: Elias Escape. Main danger: Elias Escape — Elias Escape (SR:57, 7/1, Wgt:9-9) has steamed in 31% in the market — the biggest move in the field — and despite DistFit:- and GoingFit:- concerns, that level of money in a Class 6 AW handicap usually signals stable confidence that can override moderate form-book signals.

Verify· #21133

Full result

Winner: Ice Show (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.