← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Tuco Salamanca
MEDIUM Advised 9/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Tuco Salamanca (SR 121, 9/4) is the clear class standout in this field — rated 10 points clear of the next best (Fluorescence, SR 111) and 14+ clear of most rivals. Despite stepping up one class tier (ClassMv:↑1) and running off a mark 10lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+10), the SR advantage is commanding for a Listed sprint. Course form is excellent (W1P2 at Ascot), distance proven (DistFit:+), and the market has shortened 13% since opening — meaningful support in a competitive Listed race. Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate, 3096 career runs — the most experienced booking in the field) is another bullish signal from Ollie Sangster's progressive yard (14% SR). The MarkMv:+10 is the one concern, but SR 121 in a field where no other runner cracks 112 means he retains a substantial ability buffer. Each-way alternative: Fluorescence. Main danger: Air Force One — Air Force One (SR 108, 8/1) has shortened 14% in the market — the joint-largest move in the field alongside Aramram — is proven at the distance (DistFit:~), wears a visor, and Geoff Oldroyd's 19% strike rate suggests quiet confidence; a big run from a mark that may underestimate current form is plausible.
Full result
Winner: Air Force One (IRE) at SP 17/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Air Force One Fox #3 17/2
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2
Regional 9/1
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3
Tuco Salamanca Fox #1 5/2
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4
Fluorescence Fox #2 6/1
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5
Baker Blue 33/1
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6
Heavenly Heather 16/1
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7
Aramram 11/1
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8
Shagraan Fox #4 5/1
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9
King of Light 28/1
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10
First Instinct 12/1
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11
Lifeplan 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Tuco Salamanca 9/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Fluorescence 7/1 🏁 4TH
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3
Air Force One 8/1 SP 17/2 🏆 WON
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4
Shagraan 5/1 8TH