← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Witches Familiar
MEDIUM Advised 1/2 SP 2/5F Est. 58%
Mr Fox says
Witches Familiar (SR:164, 1/2) is in a class of its own in this six-runner Grade 3 field — the SR of 164 is top-class by any measure and towers over the next-best Switch From Diesel at SR:134. The Mullins/Townend combination carries a 26%/38% strike rate respectively, and a clean 11 form line confirms both runs were winning efforts. At 10-11, she carries the lightest weight of the field alongside Like An Ocean, giving her a 1lb edge on Switch From Diesel and further advantages over the heavier-burdened runners. While GoingFit:? and DistFit:? flag unknowns on going and distance, the sheer class margin — 30 SR points over the field's second-best — makes those concerns academic at this level. Mullins' yard at 26% overall and Townend at 38% are formidable signals of a yard sending a horse ready to run. Each-way alternative: Switch From Diesel. Main danger: Switch From Diesel — Switch From Diesel (SR:134, 10/3) arrives on the back of a 248-11 form line showing back-to-back wins and holds the second-best SR in the field; while the GoingFit:? is a concern and it has drifted 12% in the market, the 103-day freshen-up and proven DistFit:+ mean it is clearly the most likely to capitalise if Witches Familiar faces any inexperience issues over hurdles.
Full result
Winner: Witches Familiar (FR) at SP 2/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Witches Familiar Fox #1 4/7
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2
Switch From Diesel Fox #2 11/4
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3
Minella Hollow 10/1
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4
Goeasyonme 100/1
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5
Mino Des Mottes Fox #3 17/2
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6
Like An Ocean 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3