← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Killarney Races Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Stede Bonnet
SPECULATIVE Advised evn Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Stede Bonnet (SR 108, evens) is the standout pick despite carrying a MarkMv:+1. The horse has confirmed distance fitness (DistFit:+) and going fitness (GoingFit:+) for today's 2m4f180y on good ground — two critical signals that no other runner can match. Crucially, the market has steamed in 28% to evens, reflecting strong confidence from Gordon Elliott's yard (18% strike rate, 4040 runners), with Jack Kennedy booking (22% strike rate, 1221 runners) — an elite combination that rarely appears without intent. The form string 30-230 shows consistent placed efforts, and this is a small field of just five where class and connections matter enormously. Each-way alternative: Impero. Main danger: Time Is A Thief — Despite the alarming 37% drift, Time Is A Thief carries the highest SR in the field at 112 and a form line showing a win over hurdles (2/F1-2), and Henry de Bromhead's yard retains a 16% strike rate — if the layoff concerns prove unfounded, the raw ability is there to trouble Stede Bonnet.
Full result
Winner: Woodstream Lad (IRE) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Woodstream Lad 25/1
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2
Stede Bonnet Fox #1 8/11
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3
Time Is A Thief Fox #3 6/5
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4
Mister Loolah 66/1
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—
Impero Fox #2 -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Stede Bonnet evn 🥈 2ND
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2
Impero 11/2
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3
Time Is A Thief 6/4 🥉 3RD