← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
French Affair
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
French Affair (SR 95, 3/1) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — 11 SR points clear of the next-best Buccabay (SR 84). Dropping two class tiers with a GoingFit:+ on today's good-to-soft surface is a potent combination, and the form string 461135 shows a recent win before a modest latest run. David Egan (13% career strike rate, 2,032 runners) is a competent booking, and while the mark is 2lb higher than at last win (MarkMv:+2), the class relief more than compensates. The market at 3/1 reflects solid confidence in a horse that is simply better-rated than its rivals on today's conditions. Each-way alternative: Mesaafi. Main danger: Buccabay — Buccabay (SR 84, 3/1) has shortened 17% in the market, holds a Course:W1P5 record at Kempton showing real track affinity, and runs off a mark 2lb below its last win — the money is clearly following this horse and it cannot be ignored.
Full result
Winner: Mesaafi (GB) at SP 5/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mesaafi Fox #3 5/2
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2
Space Party 11/1
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3
French Affair Fox #1 10/3
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4
Tyger Bay Fox #4 10/1
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5
Fifty Nifty 9/1
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6
Charlie Mason 12/1
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7
Merrimack 28/1
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8
Wyle Cop 33/1
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9
Buccabay Fox #2 7/2
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—
Shihoku 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
French Affair 3/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Buccabay 3/1 9TH
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3
Mesaafi 7/2 SP 5/2F 🏆 WON
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4
Tyger Bay 10/1 🏁 4TH