← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Arcturus Flame
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Arcturus Flame (SR:156, 7/4) is the standout on ability — a 32-point SR gap over the next-best Red Metal (SR:152) and a massive 32-point gap over the field's joint-third tier. The sole career start returned a win, GoingFit:+ confirms the good-to-firm ground suits, and at 5lb lighter than the favourite Square d'Alboni (11-6 vs 11-11) the weight advantage is real. James Owen (19% strike rate, 2,250 runners) and Jonathan Burke are a competent partnership, and the tongue-tie suggests connections know how to present this horse. The market (7/4) is rational here given the SR lead. Each-way alternative: Square d'Alboni. Main danger: Square d'Alboni — Square d'Alboni (SR:124, 6/5 favourite) holds Course:W1P1 at Stratford, DistFit:+, is trained by the in-form Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton combination (22%/26% strike rates), and drops two class tiers — local course knowledge and a powerful yard can compensate for the SR gap, and the market clearly has it as the safer conveyance despite the lower rating.
Full result
Winner: Red Metal (FR) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Red Metal Fox #3 4/1
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2
Prince Vinny 16/1
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3
Square d'Alboni Fox #2 13/8
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4
Drumstick 80/1
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5
Arcturus Flame Fox #1 6/5
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6
Lady of The Isles 150/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3