← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
SPP Digital "Confined" EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Run More Than Three Times) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Zhuri
MEDIUM Advised 10/11 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Zhuri (SR:157, 10/11) is the standout on every meaningful signal in this small field. The SR of 157 is the highest in the race by 5 points over Faithful (SR:152) and represents top-class 2yo ability on the Saturday Rating scale. Crucially, Zhuri has already run — a debut fourth just 16 days ago — giving the Gosden yard a clear line on where the filly is, and the market has responded with a 6% shortening since opening, suggesting confidence from connections that improvement is forthcoming. Running off the same class mark as that debut (ClassMv:=) means there is no upward pressure from a grade rise, and the equal weight burden (9-2 all round) removes any lbs disadvantage. The Gosden operation runs at 24% career strike rate from 1,468 runners, and this looks a straightforward assignment for a filly they clearly think highly of. Each-way alternative: Faithful. Main danger: Faithful — Faithful (SR:152, 7/2) carries the second-highest SR in the field and the William Haggas/Tom Marquand combination is formidable, but the 10% drift from opening price is a genuine concern — markets rarely drift that sharply on Haggas debutants without reason — making Faithful a credible but cautious each-way alternative rather than a confident challenger.
Full result
Winner: Emocionante (IRE) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Emocionante Fox #3 10/1
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2
Zhuri Fox #1 4/7
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3
Faithful Fox #2 5/1
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4
Lady Jemima 7/1
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5
Never An Angel 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3