Matchbook Betting Exchange Supporting UK Racing EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes(for Horses In Band D Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)

14:13 Brighton Tue 06 Oct 2026 0m7f216y Class 4 Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Lord Percy

SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 35%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Lord Percy (SR 151, 2/1) leads the experienced runners on ability and has the market's backing, with a notable 8% inward move since opening — money is coming for this horse. The Ed Dunlop yard operates at a solid 12% strike rate with 1117 career runners, and dropping a class tier (ClassMv:↓1) into a Class 4 maiden is a meaningful positive signal. Jockey Finley Marsh at 14% career strike rate is a competent booking. Queens Bandit (SR 155) holds the highest SR in the field and ran a promising third last time, but has drifted 8% in the market and runs for Charlie Clover whose 21% strike rate flatters a small sample of 177 runners — the drift is a meaningful caution that tips the balance towards Lord Percy. Each-way alternative: Queens Bandit. Main danger: Queens Bandit — Queens Bandit holds the field's highest SR at 155 and returns from just 18 days off a promising third, and if the 8% drift is merely market noise rather than a genuine concern, her superior ability rating could assert itself over 7f216y.

Verify· #21797

Full result

Winner: Tough Decision (GB) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Tough Decision Tom Clover · Jack Doughty 11/2
2 Queens Bandit Fox #2 Charlie Clover · Saffie Osborne 5/2
3 Son of Light Fox #3 Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos · Dylan Hogan 4/1
4 Curious Minx Fox #4 Richard Hannon · Joe Leavy 12/1
5 Lord Percy Fox #1 Ed Dunlop · Finley Marsh 9/4
6 Farouche Stuart Williams · Kaiya Fraser 28/1
7 Taranis Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop 25/1
8 Parisienne Love Hughie Morrison · Rhys Clutterbuck 20/1
9 True Impact Jonathan Portman · Donagh Murphy(5) 80/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Lord Percy 2/1 5TH
2 Queens Bandit 9/4 🥈 2ND
3 Son of Light 4/1 🥉 3RD
4 Curious Minx 18/1 🏁 4TH