← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Insuspense
MEDIUM Advised 2/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Insuspense (SR 80, 2/1) is the clear form pick here — the highest-rated runner in the field by a meaningful margin and carrying only 9-8 despite that superiority. The market has shortened 36% since opening, the strongest steaming signal in the race, pointing to informed confidence. Course record of W1P3 at Southwell is a significant advantage on an AW specialist track, and DistFit:+ plus GoingFit:+ confirm the horse handles today's conditions. Last-time-out winner (form ending '1') stepping up one class with MarkMv:+5 is the one note of caution, but the SR advantage over the next-best runners (Storm Esme and Fantasy Obsessor both SR 73, seven points back) is wide enough to absorb that penalty. Each-way alternative: Storm Esme. Main danger: Fantasy Obsessor — Fantasy Obsessor (SR 73, 10/3) has steamed in 18%, holds a 4lb weight advantage over Insuspense at 9-4, carries strong Course:W1P3 form at Southwell, and is the Appleby yard's designated number one runner — if the market has underestimated the weight pull, this is the horse most capable of reversing the SR gap.
Full result
Winner: Overbudget (IRE) at SP 11/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Overbudget 14/1
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2
Black Orchid 17/2
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3
Fantasy Obsessor Fox #3 7/2
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4
Keldeo 16/1
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5
Insuspense Fox #1 2/1
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6
Daytona Lady 16/1
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7
Remi Mae 18/1
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8
Storm Esme Fox #2 5/1
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9
Clementines Star 9/1
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10
Moira Express 66/1
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—
All Good 25/1
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—
Startled Lady -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Insuspense 2/1 5TH
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2
Storm Esme 11/2 8TH
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3
Fantasy Obsessor 10/3 🥉 3RD