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Mr Fox’s call
Draco Malfoy
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Draco Malfoy (SR:117, 10/3) has steamed in 43% from opening, the most dramatic market move in this field by a considerable margin — connections and the market clearly believe the conditions suit. The drop of one class (ClassMv:↓1) combined with a mark 4lb lower than last win (MarkMv:-4) gives him a genuine competitive edge on paper, and DistFit:+ confirms he handles 2m4f. At 12-1 he carries top-weight, but the 9lb advantage over In The Age (SR:120) at 11-8 partially offsets any weight concern, and the Kim Bailey/Jonathan Burke combination operates at a solid 16%/15% strike rate. The P at the end of his form string needs explanation but the 173-day break and class/mark drop suggest a fresher, more motivated runner. Each-way alternative: In The Age. Main danger: In The Age — In The Age (SR:120, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries a favourable 11-8, and the Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton combination (22%/26% strike rates) is among the most potent in British jump racing — despite the 10% drift, class drop of two tiers means they may simply be bringing a better horse to an easier race.
Full result
Winner: Bel Ombre (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bel Ombre Fox #3 7/1
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2
Kelijoe 9/4
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3
Livingit Du Large 9/1
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4
Draco Malfoy Fox #1 11/4
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5
In The Age Fox #2 7/2
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6
Le Soleil Reve 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3