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Menabrea Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Caturra Rock
HIGH Advised 11/10 Est. 45%
Mr Fox says
Caturra Rock (SR 154, 11/10) is the standout on ability in this field, sitting 4lb clear of the next-best SR-150 Muve On and carrying the same weight (9-7). The market has shortened 7% — meaningful steaming in a small field — and Ed Dunlop's 12% yard strike rate is respectable. Crucially, this is a class drop of three tiers, meaning Caturra Rock's SR-154 ability has been demonstrated at a considerably higher level than today's Class 5 novice; even a below-par effort here should be sufficient. Hector Crouch at 18% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the race, further endorsing connections' confidence. Each-way alternative: Muve On. Main danger: Muve On — Muve On (SR 150, 4/1) is the Easterby yard's #1 runner based on SR and jockey seniority (David Allan over Sean Kirrane), and having run twice already has racecourse experience that could matter on heavy ground — though the 13% market drift is a mild negative signal against him reversing the SR gap.
Full result
Winner: Alfa Blueburd (IRE) at SP 2/1J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Alfa Blueburd 22/1
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2
Sea Mirage 2/1
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3
Muve On Fox #2 4/1
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4
Howard's Hobby 66/1
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5
Caturra Rock Fox #1 6/5
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6
Coul Blue 25/1
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7
Queen Bee For You Fox #3 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3