← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Aethelstan Gold
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 SP 11/10F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Aethelstan Gold (SR 156, 11/8) is the clear class leader in this field, sitting 6 SR points clear of the next-best Mystic Shadow (SR 150) and 9 clear of Charmed Boy and Galimix (SR 147). Crucially, the market has endorsed this reading emphatically — a 32% inward move is the strongest market signal in the field and directly contradicts any concern about the single run showing a third-place finish; Harry Charlton's 16% stable strike rate is solid, and the drop two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) means this horse faces materially easier opposition than at its debut. Weight is equal with the next two rated runners (9-7), so there is no poundage disadvantage to offset the SR edge. Each-way alternative: Mystic Shadow. Main danger: Mystic Shadow — Mystic Shadow (SR 150, 4/1) is trained by Ralph Beckett at a 19% career strike rate with Rossa Ryan aboard at 18% — the most potent trainer-jockey combination in the field — and as a debutant retains a ceiling that the market has not fully written off despite the 18% drift.
Full result
Winner: Aethelstan Gold (GB) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Aethelstan Gold Fox #1 evn
-
2
Galimix Fox #4 5/1
-
3
Tarn Hows 100/1
-
4
Charmed Boy Fox #3 7/1
-
5
Mystic Shadow Fox #2 4/1
-
6
What A Go I've Had 28/1
-
7
Grapple 11/1
-
8
Arkenforce 28/1
-
9
Kosima 66/1
-
10
Desert Meeting 25/1
-
11
Thai Boxer 125/1
-
12
Als Dawn 80/1
-
13
Time To Spare 66/1
-
—
Sidewalking 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Aethelstan Gold 11/8 SP 11/10F 🏆 WON
-
2
Mystic Shadow 4/1 5TH
-
3
Charmed Boy 6/1 🏁 4TH
-
4
Galimix 6/1 🥈 2ND