Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' Handicap Stakes

19:00 Southwell (AW) Thu 08 Oct 2026 1m13y Class 5 Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Rogue Citation

SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 3/1F Est. 28%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Rogue Citation (SR 85, 9/2) leads the SR rankings and pairs that top ability rating with a course record of W1P1 at Southwell — a significant advantage on an AW specialist track. The market has shortened 12% from opening, signalling informed confidence, while Daniel Tudhope (18% career strike rate, 1,937 rides) is comfortably the strongest jockey booking in this field. Running off a mark only 2lb above last win (MarkMv:+2) is a much lighter penalty than rivals Kamaway (+4), Likeness (+4), or Poets Praise (+7), and same-class entry (ClassMv:=) means no step up in opposition. The tongue-tie is retained from previous headgear use, suggesting connections are optimising. Each-way alternative: Kamaway. Main danger: Kamaway — Kamaway (SR 83, 9/2) has steamed in 32% in the market — the strongest move in the field — and combines proven distance (DistFit:+) and going fitness (GoingFit:+) with a drop in class (ClassMv:↓1), making it the clearest empirical threat to Rogue Citation.

Verify· #22282

Full result

Winner: Rogue Citation (IRE) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Rogue Citation Fox #1 Edward Bethell · Daniel Tudhope 10/3
2 Likeness Jack Channon · George Bass 6/1
3 Kamaway Fox #2 Eve Johnson Houghton · Callum Hutchinson 9/2
4 Wondrous Light Jonathan Portman · Rob Hornby 17/2
5 Jojo's Legacy Adrian Keatley · M. P. Sheehy 14/1
6 Poets Praise Fox #3 Ralph Beckett · Rhys Clutterbuck 10/3
7 Silken Bay Dr Richard Newland · Jack Doughty 40/1
8 Lovers Leap Fox #4 Jane Chapple-Hyam · David Egan 11/2
9 Style of Life Harriet Bethell · Sean Dylan Bowen 40/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Rogue Citation 9/2 SP 3/1F 🏆 WON
2 Kamaway 9/2 🥉 3RD
3 Poets Praise 11/4 6TH
4 Lovers Leap 13/2 8TH